Russia has launched what international media outlets and political leaders call a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine. A development that keeps the world’s gaze fixed on Ukraine, while other conflicts and ominous developments around the globe can go by “under the radar,” according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Two examples are Western Papua and Western Sahara; where Indonesia and Morocco, respectively, continue to intensify their military presence, and political dominance over independence-longing populations.

By Klas Lundström

ARMED CONFLICTS Following the Russian Federation’s launched invasion after a televised order of Russian President Vladimir Putin, other geopolitically unstable developments continue their walk towards potentially full-scale military conflicts in the shadow of the armed escalation in Ukraine.

In Beijing, the Chinese regime has made its stand and a step back from its Russian counterparts in order not to be portrayed as “an ally” in Russia’s quest for dominance over Kyiv. 

However, China has raised the bar in terms of military intentions over Taiwan in the past year.

“Denazification” and “reunification”

Where Vladimir Putin speaks of “denazification” of the Ukraine, the President Xi Jinping uses “reunification” to defend China’s escalating war of words over Taiwan; an island republic that sworn and gained its independence from the People’s Republic of China during the 1940s.

External analysts have studied the advancing positions of the Chinese army, and especially its navy, in the South China Sea, where several atolls and islets called the Spratly Islands, have pushed aside neighboring countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia in favor of Chinese fishermen and a cemented military presence.

In recent years, China has emphasized its military growth and staked claims to “be ready and able” to, before long fulfill a “reunification” between mainland China and Taiwan. 

It’s also evident that President Xi Jinping has set his sights on—as Putin—his personal historical legacy, to achieve something that future generations will discuss and analyze for many years.

“Reunification with Taiwan must be fulfilled,” Mr. Jinping stated in October last year, while not ruling out the force of violence to achieve that goal.

Other conflicts “under the radar”

What might happen when it comes to other conflicts, in which militarily superior parties such as Russia occupies other and nearby territories by military force, is still too early to foresee.

For totalitarian states, however, and especially those with ambitions to swell both politically as well as in terms of territory, it’s clear that the current escalating conflict in Ukraine, where mainstream media’s gaze is fixed, means that advanced positions can be achieved “under the radar.”

One example where this has happened for a long time, and largely due to silence from world powers such as the United States, is West Papua.

2022 marks 60 years since Indonesia first invaded then-Western New Guinea—which in the wake of the Dutch decolonization process stood on the verge of becoming an independent Melanesian republic—and with the help of repression and terror forced the West Papuan people to accept Jakarta’s rule, next to an indifferent United Nations and democratically elected leaders.

The timing of the European Union’s request to Indonesia to open the door into its enclosed “eastern outpost” of West Papua, a few days prior to Mr. Putin’s order to launch an attack on Ukraine, may turn out to be unfortunate—for West Papuan independence activists.

Indonesia, ruled by President Joko Widodo, has ever since the start of the ongoing military conflict in 2018, which has cost hundreds of civilian lives and 60,000 internally displaced citizens, has fended off requests from the United Nations to gain access to West Papua, to have an oversight of the humanitarian situation.

Whether the European Union’s demands on the Indonesian government and Mr. Widodo will be repeated in the foreseeable future, amidst an erupting military conflict in its own backyard, remains to be seen—and the long-term winners of continued silence regarding the situation is West Papua are the Indonesian interests within gold and copper mining, logging, and oil palm—now protected by a record-high number of stationed Indonesian troops.

“Currently, there are over 60,000 people internally displaced inside West Papua. In the last 3 years alone, Indonesia has deployed over 25,000 additional troops. All of this, while in the middle of a pandemic,” says Benny Wenda, West Papuan Interim President of ULMWP’s Provisional Government, in a statement.

Morocco establishes new military zone in Western Sahara

On the very same day that the European Union demanded Indonesia to open its borders to West Papua, one of the union’s closest allies—and especially indispensable in Europe’s efforts to curb off African migrants—announced its deepening military presence in what has been a war zone since the 1970s.

Morocco has formed a new military zone close to the border with Algeria, reports AFP, among others.

Morocco’s invasion and subsequent occupation of Western Sahara, following the latter’s independence from Spain in the wake of the Spanish dictator Francisco Franco’s death, violated international law and has led to the establishment of a 220-kilometer-long wall across the Sahara Desert, to restrain Western Saharan independence forces, led by Polisario.

Despite a 1991 UN agreement, which stated the intention of a referendum regarding the future of Western Sahara, Morocco—like Indonesia has done in West Papua—has continued to extract natural resources, relocate Moroccan citizens, and turn the northwestern Sahara into a large-scale militarized zone. 

Increased fighting in 2022

Earlier this year, Polisario reported that more than ten Moroccan soldiers had been killed in military clashes, reports that Morocco has neither denied nor confirmed, but nevertheless reports that underline the seriousness of the conflict—and its regional and geopolitical scope.

Since 2020, the Polisario considers the 1991 UN agreement annulled and the military truce to be over, and the guerilla movement has thus taken up arms again to reach a political solution to the Moroccan occupation.

Algeria, who supports Western Sahara’s claim to independence, is a key player in this conflict, and one of many other states in the Middle East and in North Africa that has criticized Morocco for its normalized relations and trade agreement with Israel, in 2020.

A year of conflict?

According to the Chinese calendar, 2022 is the year of the tiger. According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), 2022 is a year in which the world needs to keep its eyes open for potential conflicts in various corners of the globe. 

In Ukraine, the armed conflict following Russia’s military intervention is already under way—and in Ethiopia, the Tigray region remains a battlefield between rebels and army forces, with no end in sight.

Military-centric approach has mostly spawned more violence, and if foreign powers don’t want the same dilemma haunting them in a decade’s time, they need to prepare the ground for talks with militant leaders, International Crisis Group states in its report.

“As our look ahead to 2022 shows, many bad situations round the world could easily get worse,” ICG summarizes.